Photo via Calculated Risk
According to data analyzed by Calculated Risk, 2025 is positioned to record the lowest existing home sales volume since 1995, marking a significant contraction in the residential market. Whether or not this year ultimately surpasses 2024 sales, the combined performance of these two consecutive years would represent the weakest stretch for housing transactions in nearly three decades, substantially worse than any single year experienced during the 2008-2012 housing downturn.
Early-reporting local housing markets provided a glimmer of optimism in December, with sales climbing 2.5 percent year-over-year on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a sharp reversal from November's performance, when the same markets recorded a 10.8 percent year-over-year decline. Analysts note that December 2025 featured 22 working days compared to 21 in December 2024, a calendar factor that partially supported the month-over-month improvement.
The mixed signals emerging from December data highlight continued volatility in the housing sector as it navigates shifting buyer demand and prevailing economic headwinds. The significant year-over-year disparity between November and December suggests that seasonal patterns and calendar adjustments remain important variables in interpreting near-term housing market trends.
